Bali property market report 2026: demand, rents and zoning

Bali's 2025 count of 6,948,754 foreign visitors set a record. The first seven months of 2026 brought 3,900,965, which is 1.98% fewer than a year earlier. July edged ahead of July 2025 by 0.10%, the first monthly gain of the year.

That's a pause at the top, not a slump. Hotel Investment Advisory expects the full year to finish at 6.93 million, roughly where 2025 ended. The upshot for investors: visitor growth won't rescue a weak property anymore. Our tourism statistics report has the month-by-month and country detail.

Source: BPS Bali, February 2 and September 1, 2026, via Antara; Hotel Investment Advisory via Bali Discovery, September 20, 2026

Nightly rates barely moved over the year. Revenue did, because new listings arrived faster than new guests. In Pererenan the listing count jumped 45.6% over the year, and the average listing earned 27.9% less as a result. Ubud: supply up 43.2%, revenue per listing down 19.3%.

Canggu is the interesting case. Its listing count shrank 8.0% as weaker properties left the platforms, and revenue per listing still fell 23.1%. Guests had more choice next door in Pererenan, at slightly lower rates.

Inside each area, the gap between good and weak villas beats the gap between areas. A villa with 200 good reviews and a professional operator can run at 60–75% occupancy in a district that averages 36–46%.

Source: AirROI, 12 months to July 2026, in rupiah at our site's exchange rate; Rise Real Bali yield model

While villa revenue slipped, hotels filled up. Star-rated hotels ran at 67.29% occupancy in July 2026 and five-star hotels at 74.45% (BPS Bali). Horwath HTL puts its branded-hotel sample at 74% for 2025, at an average rate of about Rp 2.35 million a night.

Guests now stay about three nights in a hotel. On a short trip people pick the option with a front desk and predictable cleaning. A private villa wins that booking with service and reviews, rarely with price.

Source: Horwath HTL and C9 Hotelworks, Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2026, March 31, 2026; BPS Bali, September 1, 2026

Colliers counts about 62,000 hotel rooms on the island plus roughly 1,700 new five-star rooms scheduled through 2029, mostly in Ubud and Canggu. Hotel Investment Advisory found about 2,460 rooms under construction in August 2026, the largest share around Jimbaran and Uluwatu.

Branded residences are growing too. Villas made up 18% of the hospitality-managed residential projects on sale in Horwath's 2026 count, up from 13% a year earlier, and 84% of projects have fewer than 30 villas. Small projects mean many operators, and quality varies project by project.

Source: Colliers, Bali hotel market Q2 2026; PT Hotel Investment Advisory, data as of August 22, 2026; Horwath HTL and C9 Hotelworks, March 31, 2026

Regulation moved more in the past 12 months than in the five years before. The direction is consistent: fewer gray-area rentals, more properties with full papers. For a buyer, that's a cleaner market with a shorter list of villas worth considering.

1. September 2025Farmland moratorium

   After the September floods, the province told regencies to stop converting productive farmland to commercial use.

2. February 24, 2026Perda 4/2026 takes effect

   A provincial regulation limits building on productive fields and bans nominee ownership outright.

3. From 2026Six regencies step back from new hotels

   Tabanan, Jembrana, Buleleng, Bangli, Karangasem and Klungkung agreed not to encourage new hotels and restaurants, in return for a share of hotel and restaurant tax. It's an agreement, not a regulation.

4. August 1, 2026Unlicensed listings come off booking sites

   The Tourism Ministry began removing about 1,600 unlicensed properties nationwide from the platforms. From June 2027, platforms plan to check each listing's license against OSS automatically.

Source: Mongabay, September 26, 2025; Perda Bali No. 4 of 2026; Antara Bali, July 28, 2025; Antara, May 27, 2026; CNN Indonesia, May 29, 2026

Approved detailed plans (RDTR) cover 31.49% of Bali, according to the province's planning portal in February 2026. Badung, Denpasar and Gianyar are covered in full and linked to OSS, the licensing system. Put a villa on farmland or protected land and no amount of good photography will win it a building approval or a license to rent.

Propertia checked 16,316 sale listings in March 2026. In Badung, 9.3% of them stood on agricultural or protected land. The share rises to 17.3% in Pererenan and 26.1% around Uluwatu, and falls to 3.6% in Berawa and 0.6% in Seminyak.

• Get the land certificate number and a copy of the certificate from the seller
• Look up the plot's zone in OSS and in the regency's RDTR
• Confirm that the permitted use allows tourist accommodation
• Walk the plot boundaries on site instead of trusting the render
• Ask for the project's building approval (PBG)

Source: Bali provincial planning portal (Tarubali), February 2, 2026; Antara and Kompas, July 2026; Propertia, Bali villa market data, March 2026

Foreigners can't hold freehold in their own name, so most of the market trades as leasehold. Freehold held through a foreign-owned company is growing: it reached about 23% of hospitality-managed supply in Horwath's 2026 count, up from 12%.

The freehold premium is steep. In Seminyak, Propertia's March 2026 medians were about Rp 6.60 billion for a leasehold villa and Rp 10.92 billion for freehold, converted at our site rate. A leasehold with a clear extension clause often returns more per rupiah invested, as long as you account for the lease running down.

Official prices move slowly. Bank Indonesia's survey put Bali home prices up 1.02% a year in Q2 2026, against 0.69% nationally. That index tracks mass-market new housing, not tourist villas, so treat it as a floor for the wider market.

Source: Horwath HTL and C9 Hotelworks, March 31, 2026; Propertia, March 2026; Bank Indonesia residential property price survey, Q2 2026, and its Bali office, August 2026

One road project has crews on site in the villa belt: a new link between Subak Sari and Umalas in Canggu, started May 12, 2026 at a cost of Rp 74 billion. The airport–Canggu tram got a signed agreement on September 1, 2026, about 13 km in two phases, with groundbreaking targeted for March 2027.

The Gilimanuk–Mengwi toll road has shrunk to about 42 km and still has no investor. Its opening target is 2031. We'd pay nothing extra today for a villa near either line. Our infrastructure guide tracks each project's status.

Source: Detik, June 29, 2026; Antara and Bali Post, September 1, 2026; Kompas, July 20, 2026; Detik, August 20, 2026

Underwrite the villa at today's revenue per listing, not last year's, and assume flat arrivals. In Pererenan and Ubud, where supply grew fastest, give the model six to nine months to reach its planned occupancy.

Then compare the villa with the ones on our area pages and in the catalog, where each listing carries our net-yield estimate. We check zoning and permits before any deposit, at no charge.

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