Bali tourism statistics: arrivals, source markets and the 2026 plateau

Bali added a million foreign visitors in two years. BPS Bali counted 5,273,258 direct arrivals in 2023, 6,333,360 in 2024 and 6,948,754 in 2025. Growth slowed from 20.1% to 9.72%, which is what a market nearing its ceiling looks like.

Arrivals by sea are a small line that moved fast: 41,169 in 2025 against 24,819 a year earlier, mostly cruise passengers. Almost everyone else lands at Ngurah Rai.

For 2026 the provincial target is 7 million. Getting there means about 3.1 million arrivals from August through December. By our count from the BPS releases, that's roughly 4% more than the same five months of 2025 delivered, so the target needs a stronger finish than the first seven months suggest. PT Hotel Investment Advisory expects 6.93 million, a fraction below 2025 (Bali Discovery, September 20, 2026).

Source: BPS Bali, annual release of February 2, 2026 and monthly release of September 1, 2026, via Antara and Detik; Hotel Investment Advisory via Bali Discovery, September 20, 2026

The year opened soft and bottomed out in March at 472,070 arrivals. From April the curve climbed every month. July reached 697,809, up 15.34% on June and the first month of the year to beat its 2025 figure, if only by 0.10%.

May and June were the weak spots, down 3.98% and 5.15% year on year. The first half closed at 3,203,156 visitors, 2.42% below 2025. BPS hasn't published August yet. Its monthly release usually lands on the first working day of the second month after, so expect it around October 1.

The spread between March and July is 48%. For a villa owner that's the practical number here: the island's busiest month brings half again as many guests as its quietest.

Source: BPS Bali monthly releases, March 3 to September 1, 2026, via Antara Bali and Bali Post; Disparda Bali via Bali Post and Tribun Bali, August 28, 2026

No other country comes close to Australia. It sent 1,628,460 visitors in 2025, about 23% of the total by our calculation, and 982,403 from January to July 2026. That works out to nearly three Australians for every visitor from China, the next market.

The rest of the top ten in 2025 ran India 569,260, China 537,380, South Korea 346,680, the UK 317,520, France 279,120, the US 274,610, Malaysia 251,160, Singapore 211,330 and Japan 208,620.

In 2026 China moved up to second place. The province's January–July count puts it at 346,384, ahead of India's 318,948. The UK, South Korea and the US sit close together at 163,000 to 171,000 each.

Source: BPS Bali, 2025 by country, February 2, 2026; Disparda Bali, January–July 2026, via Bali Post, August 28, 2026. Shares are our calculation against the Disparda total of 3,923,824

Star-rated hotels filled 67.29% of their rooms in July 2026, per BPS Bali. The curve rose steadily through spring: 57.94% in April, 61.16% in May and 64.87% in June. Five-star properties ran at 74.45% in July and four-star at 65.42%.

Non-star accommodation, the category that includes most private villas and guesthouses, sits far lower. BPS put it at 34.81% in April. That's close to the 36% AirROI reports for the average short-term listing, which is why we treat the hotel series as context, not as a villa forecast.

Stays are short. In June foreign guests spent 3.09 nights on average in star hotels and 2.47 nights in non-star places (Bali Post, August 4, 2026). Short stays mean more turnovers for the same revenue, so cleaning and laundry take a bigger slice of each booking.

Source: BPS Bali monthly releases of June 2, August 4 and September 1, 2026, via Antara and Bali Post; AirROI, trailing 12 months, September 2026

Demand is flat, and supply isn't. PT Hotel Investment Advisory counted about 2,460 hotel rooms under construction on August 22, 2026. Most of them are going up in the areas where villa buyers also look.

Colliers puts the island's current stock at about 62,000 rooms, with a further 1,700 five-star rooms due between late 2026 and 2029, mainly in Ubud and Canggu. Horwath HTL's March 2026 report counted 5,641 rooms across 45 hotels in the wider pipeline. The totals differ because each firm counts a different stage, so we show them side by side.

Source: PT Hotel Investment Advisory, data as of August 22, 2026, via Kompas and Bali Discovery, September 1, 2026; Colliers, Bali hotel market Q2 2026; Horwath HTL and C9 Hotelworks, Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2026, March 31, 2026

The same advisory firm modeled 2027 hotel occupancy zone by zone. In its moderate case Sanur leads at 84.6%, and Ubud trails the main areas at 61.7%. In the downside case Ubud drops to 47.7% and Jimbaran to 50.6%.

The pattern is plain: zones with the most construction score lower. For villa buyers the takeaway is that the gap between areas, over 20 points, now matters more than the gap between property classes.

Source: PT Hotel Investment Advisory, 2027 forecast, via Bali Discovery, September 1, 2026

Ngurah Rai handled 24,125,161 passengers in 2025, 63% of them on international flights (Antara, January 2026). Its capacity is about 24 million a year, according to the Ministry of Transportation, so the terminal already runs at its limit in peak months.

The fix on the table is a reworked terminal and a connecting bridge, with no new building. The operator targets 32 million passengers a year, with works expected to take three to four years (Bali Post and Bisnis, June 18, 2026).

Every foreign visitor also owes a Rp 150,000 tourist levy. The province had collected about Rp 244 billion by August 26, 2026, against a Rp 500 billion target for the year (Bali Post). Compliance estimates run from 37% to 43% depending on the report. From late August, airlines flying into Bali announce the levy on board.

Source: Antara and Tirto, January 2026; Ministry of Transportation via Detik, January 24, 2026; Bali Post and Bisnis, June 18, 2026; Antara Bali, August 14, 2026; Bali Post, August 26, 2026

Model flat arrivals for 2027, not growth. Seven months below last year and a 0.10% uptick in July add up to a plateau at a record level, and a plateau is a fine base for a rental business if you price it honestly.

Area matters more than it did. Rooms keep coming, and they're concentrated in Jimbaran, Uluwatu, Canggu and Ubud. Before you buy there, check how the villa competes on rate and reviews. The island average won't carry it.

Plan for short stays. Average stays of two to three nights mean more check-ins per month, and your management fee and cleaning costs should reflect that. Our occupancy guide breaks the year down month by month, and rental yield by area turns the rates into owner income.

• Use the average of the last 12 months, not the peak month, for occupancy
• Ask the operator which hotels are under construction within 2 km of the villa, and when they open
• Match the target guest to the calendar of their home country
• Budget for frequent turnovers

Source: BPS Bali, 2026 releases; PT Hotel Investment Advisory, September 1, 2026; Rise Real Bali practice, 2023–2026

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