Bali villa occupancy rates and seasonality

You'll see three occupancy figures quoted for Bali, and each one measures something different. The first comes from AirROI, which tracks every short-term listing on the booking platforms: its island average is 36.0%, and the main villa areas run from 36.2% in Canggu to 46.2% in Uluwatu.

The second is BPS Bali's monthly count for star-rated hotels, which lands between 46% and 70% depending on the month. The third is what a villa with a full-time manager actually achieves. In our practice that's 60–75% over a year.

Treat the platform average as your floor and the managed-villa range as your base case. Hotel occupancy doesn't belong in a villa model at all. A hotel fills its quiet months with tour groups and conferences, and a private villa has no such channel.

Source: AirROI, trailing 12 months as of September 12, 2026; BPS Bali monthly tourism releases; Rise Real Bali practice, 2024–2026

Hotel data is the only monthly series published for Bali, so it's the best public read on the season. In 2025 star hotels bottomed out at 46.6% in March and peaked at 69.5% in August. That's a 23-point swing between the weakest and strongest months.

The 2026 low was shallower. March came in at 52.5% and July at 67.3%, according to the BPS release of September 1. A private villa swings harder than any of these hotel numbers, because it has no groups or conferences to fill the gap.

Source: BPS Bali, monthly tourism releases for 2025 and January–July 2026

Bali's season follows other countries' school calendars more than its own weather. Australia sent 1.63 million of the island's record 6.95 million foreign arrivals in 2025, close to a quarter, and its July holidays drive the year's biggest month.

Arrivals ran from 451,000 in February to 697,000 in July. The Christmas and New Year fortnight adds a short second peak at the highest nightly rates of the year.

Source: BPS Bali, direct foreign arrivals, January–December 2025, released February 2, 2026

The wet season runs from November to March, with the heaviest rain from December to February. Denpasar's 1991–2020 climate normal puts January at about 350 mm over 19 rainy days, while August gets 15 mm over three. Other datasets put January lower, near 280 mm, but the shape of the year is the same.

In practice a rainy day means one or two downpours of 40 to 90 minutes, usually in the afternoon or at night. Mornings are mostly usable. Guests still come. There are just fewer of them.

The effect shows in the numbers. Star-hotel occupancy fell to 56.7% in January 2026, from 60.9% in December. Non-star hotels and other lodging dropped harder, from 39.6% to 32.7%. Bank Indonesia's survey recorded room prices 5.85% lower in the first quarter of 2026 than in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Source: climatestotravel.com, Denpasar 1991–2020 normal; BPS Bali release of March 2, 2026; Bank Indonesia commercial property survey via JPNN Bali, May 21, 2026

Rates fall with occupancy. Horwath HTL puts Bali's average hotel room rate for 2025 at about Rp 2.4 million, rising roughly 17% above that in July and August. In February and March, revenue per available room falls to Rp 1.3–1.4 million, close to half the peak month.

So the most common mistake in a yield pitch is multiplying an August nightly rate by 365. On hotel data alone it overstates a year's revenue by about a third, and for a villa, with its sharper swing, the gap is wider.

Source: Horwath HTL, Bali Hotel & Branded Residences 2026; C9 Hotelworks monthly data; Rise Real Bali calculation from BPS monthly occupancy

Nyepi, the Balinese day of silence, shuts the island for 24 hours. In 2026 the airport closed from 6 a.m. on March 19 to 6 a.m. on March 20, and airlines suspended 440 flights. Nobody checks in or out that day, and guests stay inside the villa.

Galungan and Kuningan follow a 210-day Balinese cycle, so their dates shift every year and move local demand. Check the dates before you set an opening day or a pricing calendar.

1. FebruaryChinese New Year

   A short spike in arrivals from China, followed by a quiet March.

2. MarchNyepi

   Airport closed for 24 hours. Block the dates in advance.

3. JulyAustralian school holidays

   The biggest month of the year for arrivals, occupancy and nightly rates alike.

4. Late DecemberChristmas and New Year

   Two weeks at the year's highest nightly rates.

Source: ANTARA News and Tempo, March 2026; Balinese Pawukon calendar

The month a villa opens shapes its first year. One that starts renting in April collects reviews before the July peak. One that opens in November spends its first months in the slowest quarter, with no reviews to lift it.

We plan handover and launch for April to June where the build schedule allows. November to March is the time for repairs, a switch of management company or a new photo shoot. It's also when owners who use their own villa should book their stays.

• Build the yield model on the annual average rate, not the peak rate
• Allow for two months below 50% occupancy
• Ask the management company what it does in February and March
• Plan your own stays for the low season
• Aim for an April–June launch if you're buying off-plan

Source: Rise Real Bali practice

Occupancy is one input. The nightly rate, management costs and tax decide the rest, and our rental yield guide shows how the five main areas compare on gross and net. Area pages for Uluwatu, Pererenan and Canggu list local occupancy.

To test a property at 50, 60 and 70%, use the yield calculator or send us a listing from the catalog and we'll model it.

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