Property valuation in Bali: how to test what a villa is worth

Bali property valuation is triangulation. Nobody publishes recorded sale prices, so every number you see is an asking price, and a seller's opinion isn't a valuation. Appraisers rely on three approaches (market, income and cost), and each fails in a different place.

We'll run all three on one villa: two bedrooms and a pool in Canggu, 140 m² (≈ 1,507 sq ft) of living space on a 2-are plot (an are is 100 m²). It's furnished, finished this year, with 25 years of leasehold left and no extension. It asks Rp 5.4 billion. This is our illustration, not a listing.

Source: IVSC, International Valuation Standards, effective January 31, 2025; Metro TV, February 6, 2026

Area medians for leasehold two-bedroom villas in our catalog run Rp 36–45 million per m² of living space, and the overall median is Rp 41 million. Dividing by living area takes size out of the comparison, so a compact villa and a large one line up.

Prices vary more inside one area than between areas. Uluwatu's middle half runs from Rp 35 to 58 million. A view, a bigger plot or a short walk to the beach moves the number more than the area name does, so compare villas within a few hundred meters. If the plot is the product, compare per are instead. Our land price guide has the rates.

Source: Rise Real Bali catalog, October 2026: published villas with a stated price and living area. Areas with few listings are left out.

On our worked villa, one year of lease is worth about Rp 208 million. Divide each comparable's price by its living area and by its years left, and the median is Rp 1.49 million per m² per year. At 140 m² and 25 years, that's Rp 5.2 billion at asking-price level.

Those are asking prices, so we trim them. Two studies cited in our villa price guide measure the spread between asking and closing prices at 13.2% and 5–15%. We take 10%, which gives Rp 4.7 billion.

A straight line is the seller's best case. With 20 years left the villa is worth Rp 4.2 billion on this line, and with 15 years Rp 3.1 billion. Buyers mark short leases down harder, and Propertia found prices fall faster below about 20 years (March 2026). A fixed-price extension changes the math, so read that clause first. Our extension guide lists what to check.

Source: Rise Real Bali illustration: the four listings are invented within the ranges of our catalog. Propertia, March 2026.

Rent alone supports about Rp 3.1 billion. We assume Rp 2.4 million a night and 60% occupancy, our level for a managed villa. That grosses Rp 526 million. In our model, management takes 18% of revenue, upkeep and vacancy take 12%, and a resident owner's income tax takes 10%. The owner keeps 60%, or Rp 315 million, which is a 5.8% net yield at the asking price.

The brochure shortcut divides income by a target yield. At 8% it says Rp 3.9 billion, and it treats the villa as if it lasted forever. A lease doesn't. Discount 25 years of income at 9%, our assumption for an asset that's hard to sell, and the value is Rp 3.1 billion. At 7%, near the 7.29% government bond yield of July 30, 2026, it's Rp 3.7 billion.

Turn it around. With nothing left at the end, a 25-year lease needs a 10.2% net yield to pay 9%. Each year Rp 216 million of the price expires with the lease (lease run-off), which leaves Rp 99 million of net rent, or 1.8% of the price. Resale has to supply the rest, and our ROI guide tests it.

Source: Rise Real Bali yield model, 2026; CNBC Indonesia, August 3, 2026

About Rp 3.75 billion: Rp 2.0 billion for the house and Rp 1.75 billion for 25 years of land lease, at the rates in our construction cost guide. Nobody sells at cost, so this lens shows how much of the price is margin.

Here the leftover is Rp 1.65 billion, or 31% of the asking price. It pays the developer's margin, sales costs and a villa you can rent now rather than in 12–18 months. Land plus margin come to 63% of the price, inside the two-thirds line where we start asking questions.

Source: Rise Real Bali illustration. Contractor price lists, 2026; Canggu ground rent of Rp 25–45 million per are a year, Brighton, February 2026.

Weight comparables most and use cost and income as checks. At asking-price level the comparables land within 4% of Rp 5.4 billion, and after the deal gap they say Rp 4.7 billion. This villa is priced like its neighbors, not above them.

The distance to the other two lenses is the price of a leased plot near the beach. Rent alone doesn't repay it, so the lifestyle and the resale case must. Our read: about Rp 4.7 billion is a fair deal price. Test your own villa in the yield calculator or pick a listing from the catalog. The Canggu page shows local rents.

Source: Rise Real Bali illustration, October 2026

NJOP is the regency's official valuation of land and buildings, not a market price. It's the base for the annual PBB-P2 land and building tax (Law 1/2022, Article 40), and regencies reset it about every three years (Ortax, May 2025). Market prices usually run 1.5 to 2 times higher (Fortune IDN, January 2026), and a Ministry of Finance state-assets office notes that NJOP is frequently far lower than market value (DJKN, November 2024).

Bali is catching up: Badung raised NJOP in tourist zones such as Kuta in 2025 (detik, November 2025). Treat NJOP as a sanity floor, not a price.

It matters at purchase too. On a titled property, transfer duty (BPHTB) runs on the higher of your price and NJOP (Law 1/2022, Article 46). A leasehold carries none. You'll find the figure on the latest PBB-P2 notice (what NJOP is). The BHUMI map of the land agency shows land value zones, which run above NJOP (Pajakku, February 2026).

Source: Law 1/2022 (HKPD), Articles 40 and 46; Ortax, May 2025; DDTC, January 2024; Fortune IDN, January 2026; DJKN, November 2024; detik Bali, November 2025; Pajakku, February 2026

You need one when someone else has to rely on the number, most often a bank or a tax office. The Ministry of Finance licenses appraisers. A public appraiser (Penilai Publik) works inside an appraisal firm (KJPP) and follows the valuation standards (SPI) of the profession's association, MAPPI (PMK 101/2014, Articles 6, 8 and 42).

Banks use their own appraisers and call in an independent one once the exposure passes Rp 10 billion (OJK, POJK 40/2019), but a leasehold can't be pledged, so most foreign buyers never meet this rule. A PT PMA that takes a property in as capital must value it at fair market price or through an independent expert (Company Law 40/2007, Article 34).

For an ordinary purchase it's optional. A report costs from about Rp 1.3 million for a house up to 250 m² to roughly Rp 9 million, plus VAT. Ask for the firm's license, the valuation date and the right it values. On a leasehold, that's the lease for its remaining years. The report won't check title or permits, so pair it with our due diligence checklist.

Source: PMK 101/2014 as amended; OJK, POJK 40/2019; Law 40/2007, Article 34; appraisal firm fee schedules, August 2025

No single sign proves it. Several together do, and each one is a question for the seller, not an accusation.

Source: Rise Real Bali practice; AirROI, trailing 12 months, September 2026

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